Strategic Overview
Bangladesh faces a complex interplay of threats: the AL and its decentralized networks remain the single biggest destabilizing factor, as this group exploits grassroots mobilization, disinformation, and financial hubs to weaken the interim government. Targeted misinformation is fueling communal tensions in key regions, and border vulnerabilities in the north and southeast risk expanding into broader conflicts. This all happens while digital warfare and cyber-attacks continue to probe state resilience.
1. Tactical Threat Analysis and Forecast
1.1 Awami League Activities
- Leadership Strategy: Exiled AL leaders, including Sheikh Hasina, direct from Kolkata with mid-ranking cadres handling internal operations.
- Urban Mobilization: Sleeper cells in Dhaka and Chittagong are planned pinprick attacks against the logistic and industrial sectors aiming at paralyzing some key economic sectors, which includes the garments industry.
- Financial Backing: Hundi channels and remittances from AL-linked diaspora groups in the UK and UAE drive these activities.
- Forecast: AL-led organized unrests can be expected in Dhaka and Chittagong against critical installations during mid-week (Dec 10-12).
1.2 Communal Tensions
- Sylhet Hotspots: Krishna Das Prabhu’s detention continues to provoke Hindu-Muslim unrest, exacerbated by provocative social media posts.
- Chittagong Flashpoints: False reports of mosque desecrations in Rangpur and Chittagong fuel tensions, raising the risks of new communal violence.
- Forecast: Escalation of violence in Sylhet and Chittagong due to localized riots and protests triggered by misinformation.
1.3 Border Security
- Myanmar: ARSA recruitment accelerates in Cox’s Bazar camps and militant infiltrations take place in Bandarban and Teknaf regions; Myanmar-backed militias step up incursions, villagers living in fear due to rising tensions.
- India: Smuggling in Rajshahi on the rise, driven by AL-linked operatives looking to finance domestic disruptions.
- Forecast: Increased militant activity in Bandarban and Teknaf. Border skirmishes in Rajshahi, Feni with increased smuggling activity.
1.4 Cybersecurity
- Phishing Campaigns: Government systems face sustained phishing attacks from Myanmar- and India-based servers.
- Digital Propaganda: AL-led social media campaigns amplify narratives of state oppression using doctored visuals and hashtags like #RestoreDemocracy.
- Forecast: More complex cyberattacks on government and financial systems, combined with disinformation campaigns against public confidence.
2. High-Impact Events and Risks
2.1 Dhaka and Chittagong organized synchronized urban strikes: Disturbance to supply chain, especially garment exports.
2.2 Communal clash in Sylhet and Chittagong: Undermining public order, further polarisation.
2.3 Militant activity in Bandarban and Teknaf: Regional destabilization and displacement.
2.4 Cyber-attacks on government infrastructure: Information leaks and critical service outages.
3. Strategic Recommendations
3.1 Disrupt AL Networks: Carry out preemptive lawful strikes at identified sleeper cells in Dhaka and Chittagong. Strengthen financial oversight to prevent funding through hundi networks.
3.2 Counter Communal Tensions: Deploy rapid-response units in Sylhet, Feni and Chittagong. Initiate community-based sensitization programs to debunk false information.
3.3 Secure Borders:
- Deploy modern surveillance around Bandarban and Rajshahi.
- Initiate diplomatic talks with India and Myanmar (including AA) to address the cross-border threats.
3.4 Strengthen Cybersecurity:
- Improve cybersecurity measures and follow phishing trends.
- Collaborate with social media companies to beat AL-driven digital propaganda.
The coming 7 days bring increased risks on three fronts: urban unrest, border instability, and digital threats. A clear and firm response is needed to neutralize these risks and provide for national stability. Bangladesh Defence Journal will continue to supply intelligence to support timely action.
Why are we still not seeing mass reform in the Intelligence agencies in our country. This is just unbelievable. Even while knowing everything, our government are not doing anything.