Strategic Overview
A few potent internal instigators of instability, furthered by political mayhem, religious tension, and cross-border security threats, make this a very insecure week for Bangladesh. Those in the immediate line of fire are the Awami League’s sleeper cells, communal conflagrations, exchange of fire on the Myanmar border, and cyber terrorism—all these add to the situation because of propaganda machinery.
Tactical Threat Assessment and Forecast
1.1 Political and Internal Threats
Awami League (AL) Sleeper Cells:
- Intelligence indications are that Awami League factions based abroad are activating sleeper cells in Dhaka, Narayanganj and Chittagong.
- Planned Disruptions: There are planned coordinated actions from December 22–24, including transport blockades and industrial sector disruptions, to pressure the interim government and signal opposition to the political transition.
- Targeted Killings: Intelligence indicated that , A Team operatives, such as Omi Rahman Pial based in Switzerland, have issued directives for targeted violence against private university students associated with the July-August Movement.
- Financial Support: Funds from UAE and UK-based AL supporters sustain these operations.
Forecast:
- December 22–24: High risk of large-scale disruptions in Dhaka and Narayanganj targeting the garment and transport sectors.
- December 24–26: Probably an uptick in targeted violence, notably against student activists.
- December 25-26: Sit-ins and road blockades at key infrastructure points in Chittagong and Sylhet possible.
Actionable Recommendations:
- Lawfully neutralize AL sleeper cell operations with Lawful Intelligence Based Operations.
- Enhance control over financial transactions related to AL-associated diaspora.
1.2 Communal Tensions and Religious Clashes
- Tabligh Jamaat Factional Violence: Clashes between two factions of Tablighi Jamaat, which centre around the leadership tussle, are on the rise. The recent Tongi (Gazipur) violence for the possession of Bishwa Ijtema grounds saw 4 killed and above 100 injured.
- The religious mobilization: The community mobilizations in Sylhet and Rangpur, stirred up by false reports and religious provocations, could get more traction during December 22-25.
Forecast
- December 22–23: Escalated violence in and around the Bishwa Ijtema grounds in Gazipur; greater risk of bloodshed in Sylhet and Rangpur.
- December 22-25: Possible backlash from protests could lead to unrest within religious minorities.
Actionable Recommendations:
- Deploy law enforcement to key hotspots, especially near the Ijtema grounds and minority areas.
- Debunk religiously fueled misinformation on social media.
1.3 Myanmar-Bangladesh Border and Cross-Border Militancy
- Arakan Army (AA) in control of Maungdaw: Following the Arakan Army’s (AA) takeover of Maungdaw Township, they now have control over substantial border territories abutting Bangladesh, raising fears of militant infiltration and more refugees.
- Rakhingya Refugee Movements: There has been more than 20% increase in the arrival of refugees from Rakhine State, focused on Teknaf and Ukhiya. There has also been an uptick in cross-border militancy at the Bandarban border.
- Arms Smuggling and Insurgency: There have been intelligence reports on the increase in arms smuggling along the Teknaf and Bandarban borders, mostly to supply local insurgencies and AA operatives.
Forecast:
- December 22–24: Potential refugee influx from Myanmar to Teknaf and Ukhiya camps.
- December 25–27: Rise in militant activities in Bandarban as AA possibly makes incursions and hits weak border outposts.
Actionable Recommendations:
- Beef-up BGB (Border Guard Bangladesh) deployments along Teknaf and Bandarban.
- Improve intelligence-sharing with regional authorities including but not limited to Arakan Army (CAREFULLY) to curb insurgent movements and arms smuggling.
1.4 Cybersecurity and Online Propaganda
- Cyber Threats: Threats are being amplified against July Mass Uprising activists, supporters and their next of keen.
- Social Media Misinformation: Bot networks linked to AL are amplifying narratives on the failure of the interim government, targeting young activists, students, and minorities.
- Cyber Infrastructure: Govt. Cyber infrastructure remains vulnerable to attacks and insider leaks.
Forecast:
- December 22-23: Further cyber-attacks on government infrastructure; digital violence may amplify.
Actionable Recommendations:
- Run instant counter-narrative campaigns on social media platforms.
- Develop cybersecurity on critical infrastructure related to phishing attacks and breach of data.
High-Impact Events and Risks
Awami League Protests, Targeted Physical Attack and Strikes:
Dates: December 22–24
Impact: Possible disruption in major economic activities, including exports and attacks on activist and relatives of participants of July mass uprising.
Religious Clashes
Dates: December 22–25
Impact: More violence towards religious minorities and further declines in social cohesion.
Border Skirmishes and Refugee Surge:
Dates: December 22–27
Impact: Increased militarization and humanitarian crises along the Myanmar-Bangladesh border.
Strategic Recommendations
Neutralize AL Networks:
- Preemptively strike at sleeper cells in Narayanganj, Sylhet and Chittagong.
- Coordinate with international intelligence agencies to trace financial flows.
Manage Religious and Political Unrest: - Deploy law enforcers to Gazipur, Sylhet and Rangpur to thwart communal conflicts.
- Hold interfaith dialogues to address grievances and ease tensions.
Strengthen Border Defenses: - Deploy UAVs and more BGB units in Teknaf and Bandarban.
- Work closely with regional players and Arakan Army (CAREFULLY) and UNHCR to address refugee situations effectively.
Strengthen Cyber Defenses: - Strengthen real-time monitoring of cyber threats to government websites and digital infrastructure.
- Increase cooperation with tech companies to recognize and neutralize misinformation campaigns.
FLAG
The week of December 21-27, 2024, poses a rather complex array of security challenges, especially from Awami League sleeper cells, Myanmar border instability, communal violence, and cyber threats. Only proactive and coordinated action across intelligence, security, and digital platforms can mitigate these risks and assure stability in Bangladesh.
