Strategic Overview
It confronts Bangladesh with a dynamic threat environment, modulated by the efforts of AL sleeper cells, communal unrest, and the growing risks from the Myanmar-Bangladesh border following strategic gains by the Arakan Army. All these require focused and pre-emptive measures to be taken in the political, social, border, and cyber domains for ensuring stability.
1. Tactical Threat Analysis and Forecast
1.1 Awami League (AL) Activities
- Coordinated Strikes and Disruptions: AL sleeper cells at Dhaka, Narayanganj, and Chittagong mobilized to enforce logistical blockades and strikes against garment factories and transport hubs.
- Disruptions likely planned between Dec 16–18, focusing on export zones to pressure the interim government.
Funding Channels:
- Hundi networks still channel funds from UAE and UK-based AL supporters, which is used to sustain sleeper cell operations.
Forecast:
- December 16–17: Strikes are likely against Dhaka’s transport routes and Narayanganj’s industrial zones.
- December 18: Expect wider disturbances with sit-ins in Chittagong.
Actionable Recommendations:
1. Send undercover agents to monitor and disrupt AL planning cells in Dhaka and Narayanganj.
2. Rein in financial regulation, detecting and freezing suspicious Hundi transactions.
1.2 Communal Tensions
- Hotspots and Triggers: Misinformation campaigns against minority groups are fanning unrest across Sylhet and Rangpur. Viral posts of alleged religious desecration continue to flame communal tensions.
- Planned Gatherings: Planned protests on December 16 in Sylhet, creating high-risk conditions for violence.
Forecast
- December 16–17: Very high risk of violence in Sylhet and Rangpur.
- December 18: Residual unrest could flourish into more widespread confrontations if not checked.
Actionable Recommendations:
- Mobilize quick-response forces into Sylhet and Rangpur by December 16.
- Collaborate with community leaders to address grievances and prevent potential violence.
- Build real-time fact-checking operations vs misinfo.
1.3 India-Bangladesh Border
- Joint Patrols: The joint security patrolling along the border is still underway in Tripura under high tension, and incidents such as the recent attack on the Bangladeshi consular building in India have only caused further deterioration.
1.4 Myanmar-Bangladesh Border
- Arakan Army (AA) control of Maungdaw:
- The AA’s capture of Maungdaw raises militant spillover risks to Bandarban and Teknaf.
- Recruitment among Rohingya youths has picked up in the Cox’s Bazar camps with promises of economic advantage coupled with desperation.
- Cross-Border Threats:
- Armed AA incursions are likely around Bandarban, exploiting unsecured routes. Refugee movements towards Teknaf have increased by 20% in the last 72 hours with rises to continue.
- Weapon Smuggling:
- The consolidation of control by the AA has intelligence indicating an increase in weapons smuggling into Bangladesh for use by local militant groups.
- Small arms trafficking routes have shifted with Bandarban emerging as a critical transit hub.
Forecast:
- December 15–16: There will be increased border vigilance, and possible cross-border incidents involving the Rohingya population fleeing.
- Armed incursions around Bandarban and Teknaf are likely to grow as AA fighters consolidate their hold. Arms smuggling into Bangladesh may rise.
- December 16–18: Probable militant infiltration bids in Bandarban and Teknaf.
Actionable Recommendations:
- Increase the Border Guard Bangladesh (BGB) patrols at crucial crossings of Bandarban and Teknaf.
- Deploy UAV surveillance for early detection of militant movements.
- Humanitarian Preparedness: Work with international organizations in preparing for potential influxes of refugees, ensuring resources and support systems are in place.
- Work with Myanmar to stabilize the border and effectively manage inflows of refugees.
1.5 Cybersecurity
- Coordinated Threats:
- Phishing attacks against government networks will likely peak during December 16–17, which coincide with the dates of political rallies and Independence Day celebrations.
- AL-driven bot networks that are amplifying anti-government narratives on social media.
Forecast:
- December 16: Spikes in disinformation were probably related to minority issues and economic instability.
- December 17: More cyber-attacks against government servers and financial institutions.
Actionable Recommendations:
- Beef up real-time threat-detection systems over critical infrastructure.
- Collaborate with social media platforms to disrupt bot activity spreading disinformation.
- Organize phishing awareness training for government officials.
2. High-Impact Events and Risks
- Awami League Strikes and Protests:
- Dates: December 16–18.
- Impact: Disruptions to transport and garment exports in Dhaka, Narayanganj and Chittagong.
- Communal Clashes:
- Dates: December 16–17.
- Impact: Violence in Sylhet and Rangpur, potentially destabilizing local governance.
- Border Incursions and Refugee Movements:
- Dates: December 15–18.
- Impact: Armed clashes in Bandarban, more refugee pressure on Teknaf camps.
- Cyber-Attacks and Disinformation Campaigns:
- Dates: December 16–17.
- Impact: Government operations disruption and create distrust.
3. Strategic Recommendations
- AL Operations:
- Carry out preventive and lawful strikes against sleeper cells at Dhaka and Narayanganj.
- Monitor financial transactions related to AL activities and freeze illegal transfers.
- Defuse Communal Tensions:
- Dispatch rapid-response units to Sylhet and Rangpur by December 15.
- Launch counter-misinformation campaigns for viral posts.
- Reinforce Border Security:
- Increase BGB presence and UAV surveillance in Bandarban and Teknaf.
- Collaborate with NGOs in refugee resource management.
- Cyber Security:
- Bolster defenses for critical infrastructure against phishing and ransomware attacks.
- Engage with tech platforms to disrupt coordinated disinformation campaigns.
ENDNOTE: The week of December 14–20, 2024, ushers in a confluence of threats from sleeper cells of the Awami League, Myanmar-border instability, communal tensions, and cyber-attacks. Date-specific intelligence underlines the requirement for pre-emptive and coordinated responses. Proactive action across the political, social, border, and digital domains is absolutely needed to ensure stability in Bangladesh.
