OSINT Brief & Forecast: January 7, 2025 – January 13, 2025

1. Political Dynamics

Awami League Activities

• International Lobbying and Disinformation Campaigns: AL is striving to regain political relevance by lobbying international actors and running disinformation campaigns against the credibility of the interim government. Most recently, the party used hashtags like #FailedInterimGov to influence public opinion on social media.
• Public Demonstrations and Legal Proceedings: Mass protests have erupted in Dhaka, with thousands demanding the prosecution of ousted Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina for alleged human rights abuses during her time in office. The interim government has filed a raft of legal charges, including charges of crimes against humanity, and is trying to obtain Hasina’s extradition from India.

Forecast:

Expect an increase in AL’s international lobbying and disinformation activities, which could result in diplomatic frictions. Public protests will likely persist, putting pressure on the interim government to hasten criminal proceedings against ex-AL officials.

Recommendations:

• Improve Strategic Communication: Initiate proactive information campaigns to debunk disinformation and clearly communicate the reform agenda of the interim government to both domestic and international audiences.
• Deepen Diplomatic Engagements: Engage with international partners to provide transparent updates on legal proceedings and reforms, mitigating the impact of AL’s lobbying efforts.

Bureaucratic Unrest and Sabotage

Resistance to Reforms

• Administrative Disruptions: The anti-corruption drives by the interim government have received resistance from certain sections of the entrenched bureaucracy. The recent fire at the Bangladesh Secretariat has been described as sabotage. Indicative of the recurring efforts to scuttle reform initiatives.

Forecast:

Expect resistance to continue in the form of administrative delays, refusal to implement reform directives, and possibly sabotage actions in government agencies.

Recommendations:

Effective Monitoring Mechanisms: Establish internal mechanisms to monitor, deter, and detect sabotage acts and ensure adherence to reform directions.

Myanmar-Bangladesh Border Situation

Arakan Army Activities

• Territorial Control and Military Engagements: The Arakan Army has claimed control over vast swathes of Myanmar’s Rakhine State, including areas of strategic importance along the Bangladesh-Myanmar border. This has translated into more military activity in the area around the border, creating a security concern for Bangladesh.
• Impact on Border Communities: A rise in fighting has also meant that border communities have had to contend with cross-border incidents of stray bullets and mortar shells landing in Bangladeshi territory, sending fear among people in border towns like Teknaf.

Forecast:

The Arakan Army will most probably continue its military activities around the border area, and spillover into Bangladeshi territory is also expected. The chance of increased movement of Rohingya refugees is high, so effective border management is necessary.

Recommendations:

• Increase Border Security: Positioning of additional BGB personnel equipped with state-of-the-art surveillance gadgets to patrol and secure the border to stem cross-border incidents.
• Enhance Humanitarian Coordination: Work with international bodies to control refugee inflows and ensure that while humanitarian aid is allowed, the borders are secured.

Targeted Attacks/Killings

Recent Developments

• Incidents and Allegations: Targeted attacks against student activists who participated in recent political agitation have been reported. It is alleged that the directives for these attacks are being issued by people operating from outside Bangladesh, using social media to coordinate.

Forecast:

The threat of more focused attacks against student activists remains, which may further strain relations within educational institutions and youth groups.

Recommendations:

• Full Investigations: Conduct detailed investigations into the alleged attacks to identify and arrest the perpetrators to ensure accountability and justice.
• Protective Measures: Step up security measures for student activists, including online threat monitoring and physical protection, where applicable, to avert more attacks.

Cybersecurity Threats

Disinformation Campaigns

• Current Trends: There is a consistent existence of organized misinformation campaigns against various groups in Bangladesh. The majority of the campaigns are utilizing social media platforms to propagate misinformation for creating an impression on the public and to incite unrest.

Forecasts:

An increase in misinformation campaigns in the upcoming week is anticipated, primarily on political development and border security matters.

Recommendations:

• Enhance Cyber Monitoring: Strengthening monitoring of virtual platforms for timely identification and countering of disinformation campaigns, thereby minimizing their impact on public sentiment.
• Public Awareness: Increase public awareness drives to educate citizens in identifying false information and reporting it, building a more informed and resilient community.

High-Impact Events and Risks

Remarks

The next week is a very complex web of security threats for Bangladesh, including political maneuvering, border instability, targeted violence, bureaucratic disruptions, and cyber vulnerabilities. Key to overcoming these challenges will be:

By focusing on strategic intelligence-led activities, Bangladesh can safely pass through this critical juncture ensuring national stability.