On the 17th of February, 2026, state-run Fars News Agency reported that ‘parts’ of the Strait of Hormuz would close to clear pace for military drills by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy. Ostensibly, the justification provided for such a closure has been to provide safety for civilian trade shipping while Iranian naval formations carry out live-fire drills. Said exercises had been kept up in tempo and consistency since January 2026 in an effort to remain ready and active for armed action. The most recent set of naval exercises by naval units of the IRGC have been overseen by Major General Mohammad Pakpour, the current commander-in-chief of the elite ideologically-motivated wing of the Iranian Armed Forces.
This development arrived in the midst of negotiations taking place in Geneva, right after the Munich Security Conference which had the participation of exiled Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi. Of course, the negotiations themselves have been beset with its own set of unique problems as all sides push for agreements that are unacceptable to each other. The United States had initially appeared at the negotiating table in early February with three demands that included ending support to regional proxies and limiting its ballistic missile program along with the core demand of dismantling its nuclear weapons program. Later on, the list of demands was struck down to just one.
Israel played the critical role in reviving demands tied to the limiting of the ballistic missile program, perhaps emboldened by Iran’s last-moment decision of a change of venue to neutral Oman instead of Turkey. Thus, negotiations in Geneva are proceeding with an expanded list of demands that include limits on regional proxies and Iran’s ballistic missile program. In exchange for Iran agreeing to all US and Israeli demands, there would be a comprehensive sanctions relief deal. The expanded demands from US and Israel however, are not acceptable from Iran’s point of view. Iran would end up losing a significant set of deterrence capabilities via the loss of its ballistic missiles program and its regional empire in Lebanon, Yemen, and Iraq would also unravel after having previously lost Syria.
US military build-up in the region suggests that a weeks-long military campaign is being prepared for, whose purpose would be to cripple Iranian armed infrastructure and degrade capabilities significantly. Naval assets brought to bear include two aircraft carriers, the USS Abraham Lincoln and the USS Gerald R. Ford alongside their respective naval formations. These formations are capable of deploying advanced naval air assets with long-range missiles that can also be fired from surface vessels that are each a part of their respective carrier groups.
Strikes focusing on the ‘decapitation’ of leadership, i.e. precise strikes targeting senior Iranian military and political leadership are bound to occur. Signs of renewed public demonstrations and unrest in parts of Iran, along with renewed armed activity in Iranian Balochistan points to a strategy of giving opposition elements the space to operate. The fact that domestic opposition is still seen is nothing short of significant, considering the brutality and thoroughness of the deadly government crackdown that began in January. The regime is highly unlikely to survive any sustained decapitation strike campaign.
Flight trackers show that on the 17th of February, the movement of E-3 Sentry airborne warning and control system (AWACS) units commenced. These aircraft equipped with powerful radar and data-linking systems are crucial for any sustained US military operations anywhere. Military assets of this type have been some of the last to commence movements towards the Middle East. Since January 2026, high volumes of C-17 Globemaster flights were noted. Globemasters are capable of hauling large amounts in weight of complex military equipment.
The movement of these transport aircraft necessarily signal the hauling in of large numbers of air defense systems for tackling Iran’s vast arsenal of ballistic missiles. This may in fact have been one of the key factors influencing US President Donald Trump away from authorizing military action in mid-January 2026. Finally, KC-135 Stratotanker flights have been tracked flying in a formation consistent with leading large formations of multirole strike aircraft of the United States Air Force. These typically happen to be F-35s, F-15s, and F-22s. At the time of writing, it can be stated with high confidence that negotiations are bound to fail. The Islamic Republic now finds itself in the position of a cornered wolf with the intention of going down fighting. It is not an empty threat, as Iranian proxy militia forces are still active in Lebanon, Syria and Iraq. A wider regional conflagration appears to be likelier by the day.
Iranian leadership has been clear about its intentions to not limit armed action away from US assets in the territories of Gulf Cooperation Council and wider Arab League members. Proxy forces such as the Lebanese Hezbollah, the Iraqi Kataib Hezbollah, and the Yemeni Houthis had also announced their intentions of retaliating in the asymmetric forms that they are used to. Of course, it goes without saying that the lion’s share of Iran’s conventional ballistic missile stock is reserved for Israel. For Israel, this is an existential threat. The stage is set for what may very well be one of the costliest armed conflicts of the 21st century.
For further background understanding, Bangladesh Defence Journal has more work here and here.
Verification Note: The information in this report has been compiled from multiple credible sources and cross-checked for consistency. Data and reports have been used to corroborate events where possible. While every effort has been made to ensure accuracy, access limitations may prevent independent verification of all details.
Fatin Anwar is an Associate Analyst at Bangladesh Defence Journal. He is responsible for in-depth research and analysis in combination with OSINT tools/techniques. A graduate of geography from the University of Dhaka, he had previously spent years working as a freelance writer specializing in research-heavy pieces related to geopolitics and military history.