The security situation along the Pakistan–Afghanistan border worsened on 1 July, when Afghanistan’s Ministry of Defense announced that it had carried out airstrikes using unmanned combat aerial vehicles (UCAVs) against alleged Islamic State-Khorasan Province (IS-KP) hideouts inside Pakistan’s Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Provinces. Kabul stated that the strikes targeted militant bases used to plan attacks inside Afghanistan, claiming they caused significant casualties and damage. The incident followed Pakistan’s announcement that it had intercepted and shot down four drones that crossed into Balochistan on 30 June, warning that any future violation of its sovereignty would receive a “swift, decisive and overwhelming” response.
The latest escalation followed a militant attack in Karachi on 27 June, when a vehicle-borne bomb exploded outside the provincial headquarters of the paramilitary Pakistan Rangers. The assault killed three Rangers personnel and injured four others before security forces killed three attackers and captured a wounded Afghan national. The Pakistani ISPR later stated that during the exchange of fire, “three brave sons of soil, rendered the ultimate sacrifice and embraced martyrdom in the line of duty, while four soldiers are injured.”
The attack was claimed by Jamaat-ul-Ahrar (JuA), a breakaway faction of Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). In response, Pakistan summoned Afghanistan’s chargé d’affaires and, within two days, launched a ground operation in Bajaur alongside what it described as calibrated airstrikes targeting alleged JuA and TTP hideouts in Afghanistan’s Paktia, Paktika, and Kunar provinces. Pakistan claimed that the operations killed 29 militants in total, including 25 in the cross-border strikes.
Afghanistan disputed Pakistan’s account of the operation, claiming that the strikes killed at least 36 civilians and injured more than 160 others. The United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) reported at least 28 civilian deaths and 49 injuries, while noting that the figures were preliminary. Kabul condemned the strikes as an act of aggression and the deputy minister for publications at the Ministry of Information and Culture, Hayatullah Mohajer Farahi, warned that retaliation would come “in due time,” a warning that appears consistent with its reported cross-border airstrikes and earlier drone incursions. However, casualty figures and details of the exchange remain unverified.
The latest exchange reflects a broader pattern of deteriorating Pakistan–Afghanistan relations rather than an isolated incident. The two countries have been engaged in intermittent military confrontations since fighting intensified in late February, despite several rounds of internationally mediated talks, including Chinese-brokered negotiations in April that sought to reduce tensions. The crisis also comes amid a worsening security situation inside Pakistan. According to the Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies (PICSS), terrorist attacks across the country increased by 27% in May compared with April, while attacks in Balochistan more than doubled. Pakistan also ranked first in the 2026 Global Terrorism Index, recording its highest annual terrorism-related death toll in more than a decade during 2025.
After Pakistan claimed to have intercepted and shot down four drones that crossed into Balochistan on 30 June, questions emerged over the origin and capabilities of the drones used by Afghanistan. Pakistan has described the intercepted drones as “rudimentary” and “locally produced.” However, similar drones have reportedly reached as far as Rawalpindi and Islamabad in recent months, suggesting they may have greater operational range. The Taliban’s drone program initially relied on commercially available quadcopters before expanding to locally assembled one-way attack drones, sometimes described as “kamikaze” drones, that resemble Iran’s Shahed-101 design. Drone analyst David Hambling assessed that these drones are likely assembled from imported, mostly Chinese-made components. He estimates that these drones have an operational range of roughly 300 kilometers and can carry a 5-kilogram explosive payload.
Lieutenant General Sami Sadat, a former commander of the pre-2021 Afghan National Army, has stated that the Taliban built their foundational drone capabilities by repurposing American and NATO reconnaissance equipment, left behind after the 2021 withdrawal of U.S. and NATO forces, which the group later modified to carry explosives. Reports also indicate that the Taliban has reached out to commercial and state entities in China and Russia to acquire advanced drone tech, components, and telemetry software. Despite these efforts, it is assessed that the Taliban’s drone program remains at an early stage of development.
Reportedly, the Taliban is producing kamikaze drones modeled on the U.S.-made MQ-9 Reaper and Iran’s Shahed-136 using former NATO facilities in Afghanistan, with alleged technical support from specialists linked to Iran, Turkey, China, Russia, Belarus, and Bangladesh. Meanwhile, Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has also expanded its drone capabilities, announcing an “air force” unit in December 2025. Reportedly, inexpensive, commercially available weaponized quadcopters, mostly sourced from Chinese manufacturers despite a Pakistani import ban, can be bought in domestic markets for as little as USD 200, and have been widely used in attacks on Pakistani security forces. Pakistani ISPR stated that nearly one in ten of the 5,397 militant incidents recorded in 2025 involved quadcopter drones, highlighting the growing role of commercially available drones in the country’s security challenges.
Verification Note: The information in this report has been compiled from multiple credible sources and cross-checked for consistency. Data and reports have been used to corroborate events where possible. While every effort has been made to ensure accuracy, access limitations may prevent independent verification of all details.
Afiya Ibnath Ayshi is a Security and Strategic Reporting Fellow at Bangladesh Defence Journal. She covers defence, foreign affairs, and humanitarian issues, focusing on how regional and global developments influence Bangladesh’s security and diplomacy. A graduate in English from the University of Dhaka, she brings a research-based and balanced approach to her work.