A five-week political crisis in Pakistan-administered Kashmir, officially known as Azad Jammu & Kashmir (AJK), has pushed the territory to one of its most unstable periods in recent years, just days before its legislative election. The protests are being led by the Joint Awami Action Committee (JAAC), a coalition of traders, transport workers, lawyers, students, and civil society activists. Since June, the unrest has resulted in dozens of deaths, including protesters and security personnel. The growing violence has drawn international attention, with UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk urging all sides to avoid further escalation and calling for impartial investigations into the reported deaths.
Unlike previous JAAC protests, which focused on flour prices and electricity costs, the current unrest is driven by a dispute over political representation. The AJK Legislative Assembly has 53 seats. Of these, 45 are general seats, 33 are elected by voters living in-region, while 12 are reserved for refugees from Indian-administered Jammu & Kashmir living in other parts of Pakistan. These representatives are elected by registered refugee voters outside the region. The remaining 8 reserved seats (for women, religious scholars, technocrats, and overseas Kashmiris) are elected indirectly by the 45 general members.
JAAC argues that the 12 refugee seats allow people who do not live in Pakistani-administered Kashmir to influence its legislature. The group wants these seats abolished so that all general seats are elected only by local residents. It also says the system is inconsistent because refugees who later settle in AJK cannot contest the refugee-reserved seats. After talks between JAAC leaders and a federal government team on this issue ended without an agreement in May, the AJK government banned the committee on June 5, declaring it a terrorist organization under the Anti-Terrorism Act of 2014 and accusing it of threatening public security.
Instead of reducing tensions, the ban appears to have strengthened the movement. The AJK Legislative Assembly later voted to keep the 12 reserved seats, calling refugee representation a historical and constitutional arrangement while saying any future changes should be made through the elected assembly. JAAC has rejected this position, saying it only delays meaningful reform.
The unrest was followed by repeated clashes in Poonch district, particularly in Rawalakot, as well as in Muzaffarabad. In early June, clashes between protesters and security forces in Rawalakot reportedly left at least 11 people dead and more than 70 injured. The incident occurred days before a planned JAAC rally, which authorities sought to prevent by deploying federal paramilitary forces and issuing a travel advisory. According to Al Jazeera, police opened fire as security forces attempted to disperse protesters. JAAC described the incident as a ‘massacre’, while Poonch Commissioner Sardar Waheed Khan rejected that, stating, “The state’s action was meant to restore law and order.” During this period, significant internet disruptions across the region have been reported. It began as a complete blackout in early June and since then has persisted as severe mobile internet service restrictions for over a month leading up to the election.
Further clashes occurred in mid-July after JAAC announced plans to march toward Muzaffarabad despite official warnings. At least nine people, including a Pakistan Rangers soldier and a police officer, were killed, and more than a dozen others were injured. Pakistani authorities alleged that armed individuals linked to JAAC were responsible for the Rangers soldier’s death, although JAAC denied the allegation. Azad Kashmir Home Secretary Chaudhry Guftar Hussain further accused JAAC members of using improvised explosive devices during the clashes and claimed the group intended to use women and students as “human shields.”
The government’s crackdown intensified with the arrest of senior JAAC leader Shaukat Nawaz Mir. After his detention, JAAC announced mass marches, demonstrations, and a territory-wide shutdown across the region on July 5. Supporters of the movement argued that the arrest, together with the ban on JAAC and restrictions on communications, was part of an effort to weaken the organization’s leadership and limit public mobilization. On the contrary, Pakistani officials described the movement as being backed by external actors. They accused some JAAC leaders of having links to India and alleged that the movement was aimed at undermining Pakistan’s position on Kashmir. JAAC, however, denied these allegations.
A planned long march from Rawalakot to Muzaffarabad, originally scheduled for July 15, has been postponed until July 21 following mediation efforts. JAAC agreed to delay the march while negotiations continued, which involved representatives of the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP). JAAC said it had appealed directly to Pakistan’s Army Chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, by sending a letter on July 13 outlining developments since the committee was banned on June 5. Following this, Syed Qamar Raza, chairman of the Overseas Pakistanis Foundation, was appointed as a special representative to engage with JAAC. His talks with the committee led to the postponement of the planned march until July 21, allowing negotiations to continue. Separately, a government delegation led by former Prime Minister Raja Pervez Ashraf met JAAC representatives in Rawalakot. PPP Chairman Bilawal Bhutto Zardari and JUI-F chief Maulana Fazlur Rehman also supported efforts to facilitate dialogue. As of July 21, no formal agreement had been announced.
Despite weeks of unrest, AJK authorities have confirmed that the election will proceed as scheduled. The chief election commissioner said that approximately 30 people had been killed since the unrest began; however, polling would take place under heightened security provided by the army and paramilitary forces. The number of registered voters has increased by more than 500,000 since the 2021 election, reaching over 3.8 million. The larger electorate has added significance to the ongoing dispute over the 12 refugee-reserved seats, which remains the central issue in the current crisis. The current crisis builds on several years of disputes between JAAC and the AJK government. The committee was established on September 16, 2023, as a grassroots coalition based in Muzaffarabad, initially campaigning for lower electricity tariffs, subsidized wheat prices, and broader governance reforms. Its first major protests took place later that year after the government pledged to address its demands, but JAAC said the promised measures were not fully implemented.
In May 2024, JAAC organized six days of protests, sit-ins, strikes, and a planned long march toward Muzaffarabad over rising living costs. The demonstrations ended after the federal government announced a 23-billion-rupee financial package for AJK, including subsidies for wheat and electricity, and established a judicial commission to review benefits provided to senior officials. Another round of protests followed in September–October 2025, when JAAC organized a region-wide general strike and transport shutdown, calling for further economic reforms and changes to government privileges. Those protests also concluded after negotiations.
Unlike earlier protests, the 2026 crisis centers on a constitutional issue rather than economic demands, making it less likely to be resolved through subsidies and financial packages. The dispute has also led to a tougher government response, including an outright ban. The current unrest also reflects broader debates over AJK’s political autonomy and its relationship with Islamabad. Although AJK has its own president, prime minister, and legislative assembly, key areas such as defense, foreign affairs, and parts of fiscal and administrative policy remain closely linked to Pakistan’s federal government under the territory’s constitutional framework. Many political parties, civil society groups, and residents in AJK have long argued that this arrangement leaves the territory with limited decision-making authority despite its elected institutions.
Many residents also raise concerns that AJK has not received the level of political and economic autonomy they expected despite Pakistan’s long-standing support for the Kashmir cause. Concerns frequently raised by local groups include federal influence over major policy decisions, unequal control over natural resources, delays in addressing local economic issues such as electricity tariffs and wheat subsidies and limited local input on matters affecting the territory’s governance. These grievances have fueled repeated protest movements in recent years.
The unrest in AJK has developed into a significant political challenge ahead of the July 27 election. While negotiations have reduced the immediate risk of further confrontation, the core dispute over political representation, particularly the 12 refugee-reserved seats, remains unresolved. The crisis highlights long-standing tensions over governance, autonomy, and public trust between local residents and Islamabad. With elections approaching, the outcome of ongoing talks will likely shape both the immediate political environment and the future relationship between AJK’s elected institutions and the federal government. All combined, the situation is volatile, especially as Pakistan battles violent action by the likes of the Balochistan Liberation Army, Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, and the Ittehad-ul-Mujahideen Pakistan just to name a few.
Verification Note: The information in this report has been compiled from multiple credible sources and cross-checked for consistency. Data and reports have been used to corroborate events where possible. While every effort has been made to ensure accuracy, access limitations may prevent independent verification of all details.
Afiya Ibnath Ayshi is a Security and Strategic Reporting Fellow at Bangladesh Defence Journal. She covers defence, foreign affairs, and humanitarian issues, focusing on how regional and global developments influence Bangladesh’s security and diplomacy. A graduate in English from the University of Dhaka, she brings a research-based and balanced approach to her work.
