The Strait of Hormuz is the world’s most important oil chokepoint, handling over 20% of global oil supply. Following joint US-Israeli strikes against it starting from the 28th of February, Tehran warned against using the waterway, leading most major oil companies and tanker owners to suspend shipments of crude, fuel, and LNG. A few tankers that attempted to cross despite the warning were struck. While some oil can be diverted through pipelines in Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi, a closure would still result in a net loss of 8 million to 10 million barrels per day (bpd).
According to Reuters, global oil prices have experienced a sharp surge in recent days. Brent crude jumped by around 10% in over-the-counter trading on Sunday 1 March, reaching approximately $80 per barrel. Earlier, between 26 February and 3 March 2026, crude oil prices had already been on an upward trend, rising from about $67 per barrel to roughly $73. If the blockade is not broken quickly, warn that a jump to $100 per barrel is imminent. While the U.S. holds a significant inventory buffer with a 16 million barrel increase reported in the previous week, this cannot replace in any way the global daily flow required by the world economy. The ceasing of production operations by OPEC producers will lead to further price destabilizations.
The table below shows price data at the time of writing.
| Commodity | Price(USD) | Change(USD) | Change(%) |
| WTI Crude | 72.39 | 5.37 | 8.01% |
| Brent Crude | 79.04 | 6.17 | 8.47% |
| Murban Crude | 81.53 | 7.29 | 9.82% |
| Natural Gas | 2.878 | 0.019 | 0.66% |
On February 26, OPEC+ was considering a production increase of 137,000 bpd. By March 1, in response to the war, they slightly upped this to 206,000 bpd for April. However, market analysts view this as a drop in the bucket. A full closure of the Strait of Hormuz, as in, the elimination of all vessel traffic, would remove roughly 8 to 10 million bpd. This would make any OPEC+ adjustment largely symbolic. Higher crude and refined fuel costs increase import bills, especially for states that rely heavily on oil imports, which can fuel inflation and put pressure on transportation, manufacturing, and electricity costs.
Exporting economies may benefit from higher revenues, but most of those that would export are located in the region next to hostilities, and are therefore affected by naval traffic disruptions. Import-dependent economies are set to face rising living costs, supply chain disruptions, and economic strain. Globally, energy price spikes often ripple through markets, influencing currencies, trade balances, and even monetary policies if crises last long enough.
Equities and Risk Assets
Global equity markets are under downward pressure. Investors are currently pulling back from riskier assets, triggered by a combination of soaring energy costs and escalating conflict in the Middle East. This risk-off shift is most visible in the following ways highlighted by APNews:
| Index | Change | Current Level (approx.) | Reason |
| U.S. Futures (S&P 500) | ↓ 1.4% | 6,765.58 | Fears that soaring oil prices will drive inflation and delay Fed rate cuts. |
| U.S. Futures (Dow Jones) | ↓ 1.2% | 48,189.00 | Rising operational costs for industrial giants as energy prices surge. |
| Hong Kong (Hang Seng) | ↓ 2.0% | 26,102.53 | Sharp risk aversion and concerns over global trade/logistics |
| Singapore (STI) | ↓ 2.18% | 4,886.19 | Trade hub vulnerability; shipping and aviation costs. |
| Bangkok (SET) | ↓ 1.9% | 1,489.36 | Pressure from oil import bills and potential hits to tourism. |
| India (Sensex) | ↓ 2.23% | 79,471.65 | High sensitivity to oil prices; fears of trade deficit expansion. |
| Japan (Nikkei 225) | ↓ 1.4% | 58,057.24 | Energy vulnerability partially offset by defense stocks (MHI, IHI). |
| Taiwan (TAIEX) | ↓ 0.9% | 35,095.00 | Pivot away from tech/AI growth toward defensive safe havens |
| Australia (ASX 200) | — Flat | 9,200.90 | Energy/mining exports offset broader equity losses |
| China (Shanghai Comp) | ↑ 0.5% | 4,185.29 | Gains in state oil firms (CNOOC/PetroChina) lifted index |
| DAX (Germany) | ↓ 2.2% | 24,737.47 | Soaring energy costs and supply chain risks crippled the manufacturing-heavy index. |
| CAC 40 (France) | 1.9% | 8,413.91 | A sharp sell-off in luxury and aviation stocks dragged the index down. |
Gold
On commodity exchanges, U.S. gold futures also moved higher up around 2–2.6%.With traditional exchanges closed over the weekend, digital proxies like tokenized gold (PAXG and XAUt) have already surged to levels between $5,292 and $5,344/oz, signaling a bullish opening for physical bullion. At the time of writing, the USD bullion price stands at just under $5,400 per ounce. Some experts describe the current movement as a knee-jerk spike a natural, instinctive response to the outbreak of hostilities. Long-term forecasts from major institutions like J.P. Morgan and Bank of America, which now project gold could climb as high as $6,300 by the end of the year. This sentiment is further bolstered by Friday’s U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) data, which showed higher-than-expected inflation even before the strikes began, suggesting that price pressures were already sticky.
The turmoil has spilled over into Wall Street and the broader banking sector, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures sliding nearly 1%. Beyond the war, the collapse of the UK mortgage lender MFS has reignited fears of a credit crisis. MFS was placed into administration following allegations of financial irregularities, leaving major international banks exposed to its £2 billion ($2.69 billion) debt.
Relevant Currency & Market Dynamics (Immediate)
Reuters reports that the U.S. dollar has strengthened significantly, acting as a safe-haven asset as is typical during crises like this. The dollar index (DXY) rose 0.74% to 98.37, hitting its highest level since late January. Analysts at Barclays estimate that for every 10% increase in oil prices, the dollar could strengthen by another 0.5% to 1%. The Eurozone faces significantly higher vulnerability than the United States in the wake of Middle Eastern escalations because of its structural dependence on foreign energy; while the U.S. has maintained its status as a net crude exporter for nearly a decade, the Euro area remains a heavy importer, leaving its economy exposed to supply shocks. According to Berenberg’s chief economist, a sustained $15 per barrel increase in oil prices could inflate Eurozone consumer prices by 0.5%, effectively draining disposable income across the region and stalling growth.
In the currency markets, this instability has pushed the Swiss franc to a fresh 11-year high against the euro at 0.9028, prompting the Swiss National Bank to signal potential market interventions to curb extreme volatility. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen experienced a brief appreciation before weakening to 157.005 per dollar, as the Bank of Japan weighs the impact of energy-supply shocks on domestic spending against Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino’s assertion that market turbulence will not deter the central bank from its path of raising interest rates.
The Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) witnessed a sharp downturn as the benchmark DSEX index plummeted by 138 points (2.47%) to close at 5,461, while the blue-chip DS30 (The V.I.P companies) index, dropped by 52 points (2.40%) to settle at 2,117. This decline was underscored by an overwhelmingly negative market breadth, with 353 company issues declining, only 30 advancing, and 6 remaining unchanged highlighted by The Business Standard.
The resulting sell-off led to a massive erosion of investor wealth, as the total market capitalization of the DSE fell by approximately Tk 8,000 crore, bringing the total down to Tk 7.10 lakh crore. This bearish trend was primarily driven by heavyweights across various sectors, with BRAC Bank, Islami Bank, Square Pharma, Walton, and BAT Bangladesh acting as the main index draggers. Just a month ago, in early February 2026, the price was around Tk 258,824 per bhori. Following the recent plunge in the stock market and the intensification of the war, the price has hit approximately Tk 274,000 per bhori.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
1. The potential closure could remove 8–10 million bpd of oil, severely disrupting global energy flows and creating uncertainty in the markets.
2. Brent crude jumped to around $80 per barrel, while WTI, Murban crude, and natural gas also posted strong gains due to heightened geopolitical tensions.
3. Analysts from ICIS and Rystad Energy warn that if the blockade persists, crude oil prices could surge to $100 per barrel, further straining global economies.
4. OPEC+ increased production to 206,000 bpd for April, but this is largely symbolic compared to the potential supply loss from a full closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
5. Heating oil rose over 6%, and gasoline surged as refiners worry about feedstock shortages, impacting import-heavy nations and fueling inflation.
6. Risk-off sentiment hit global equities, with S&P 500, Dow Jones, Hang Seng, Sensex, and other indices falling sharply amid energy price spikes and geopolitical uncertainty.
7. Gold futures and tokenized gold (PAXG, XAUt) surged to record highs, with analysts projecting short-term levels of $5,500/oz and potential year-end highs of $6,300/oz.
8. The USD strengthened, while the Swiss franc hit an 11-year high against the euro, and the Japanese yen briefly appreciated, reflecting safe-haven flows amid market volatility.
9. The Eurozone remains exposed due to energy import dependence; a sustained $15/bbl oil increase could raise consumer prices by 0.5%, reducing disposable income and slowing growth.
10. The DSEX fell 138 points (2.47%), DS30 dropped 52 points, and market capitalization lost Tk8,000 crore, while gold prices in Bangladesh rose from Tk 258,824 to Tk 274,000 per bhori.
Verification Note: Information is collected and cross-verified through multiple channels, including official information desks, credible social media sources, and established news outlets. Each source is assessed for reliability, with unsubstantiated or irrelevant claims excluded. The validated information is then systematically analyzed to derive conclusions.
Monjuba T Bhuiyan is a Finance student at North South University (NSU), currently working as a Strategic & Security Reporting Fellow at the Bangladesh Defence Journal, where she focuses on writing about the intersection of economics, security, and geopolitics. Her analysis emphasizes structure over noise, context over headlines, and strategy over spectacle.