Forecast Period: December 1 – December 7, 2024
Executive Summary
Though ousted, Awami League remains the most critical threat to the interim government in Bangladesh through clandestine operations, disinformation campaigns, and possible collaboration with extremist groups. These challenges are amplified by vulnerabilities along the border, the recruitment of militants, and targeted cyber-attacks. This report synthesizes information gathered from various open-source materials, including Bangladeshi, Indian, and international media, and social media trends, coupled with financial intelligence & community intelligence.
- Internal Security Threats
1.1 Awami League’s Post-Ouster Activities: Exiled Leadership and Strategy:
- Sheikh Hasina and Sheikh Rehana are allegedly orchestrating AL activities from Kolkata under Indian tacit protection. (Dhaka Tribune)
- Diaspora networks in the UK and Middle East are actively funding AL activities through informal Hundi channels.
- Clandestine Urban Operations:
- AL sleeper cells in Dhaka, Chittagong and Sylhet are organizing flash protests and industrial sabotage, particularly in the garment sector.
- Financial support for these activities has been traced to remittances linked to AL-affiliated business groups abroad and hundi channels.
- Rural Mobilization:
AL operatives in Jessore and Narayanganj are reportedly targeting rural populations with promises of economic incentives to join destabilizing activities. - Propaganda Campaigns:
- AL’s media machinery has used Facebook, (which has 91.64% social media penetration) in Bangladesh, to run hashtags like #JusticeForHasina and #RestoreDemocracy to create quite a huge international sympathy.
- Distorted photos and videos of so-called military atrocities are shared by bot networks.
Assessment:
AL is reorganizing itself as a shadow organization using financial, digital, and grassroots networks in order to destabilize Bangladesh. All these channels need to be disrupted immediately.
1.2 Communal Tensions
- Recent Incidents: The arrest of Hindu leader Krishna Das Prabhu on sedition charges has spurred unrest, violent clashes and the killing of a lawyer. Lawyers in southeastern Bangladesh have boycotted courts in protest.
Platforms like Facebook and YouTube are seeing an increase in communal rhetoric, with misinformation further inflaming tensions. Hashtags calling for justice and protection of minority rights are gaining traction, signaling more unrest. - Disinformation Amplification: Fake news of Rangpur mosque desecrations has fueled tensions, with hashtags #ProtectIslam and #MinorityAggression trending on Twitter and Facebook.
Assessment:
These events reveal a well-thought-out strategy to deepen communal divisions, most likely orchestrated by AL networks with the objective of destabilizing the government.
- Border Security
2.1 India-Bangladesh Border
- Smuggling Operations:
Recent seizures include the $2.3 million-worth of gold, and thousands of cattle in Rajshahi. These activities are linked to cross-border smuggling syndicates with AL-affiliated operatives. - Transnational Political Support:
Intelligence reports indicate India’s northeastern networks are clandestinely supporting AL leadership in Kolkata, further complicating bilateral relations.
Assessment:
The Indo-Bangladesh border is one strategic weak point that needs urgent diplomatic and tactical initiatives.
2.2 Myanmar-Bangladesh Border
- Militant Recruitment in Cox’s Bazar: Camps are being exploited for recruitment into ARSA, with promises of money and arms targeting disillusioned Rohingya youth. Bangladeshi youth are being allured by Telegram channels linked to identified extremist groups through the narrative of religious persecution and state oppression.
- Armed Incursions: Villages in Bandarban have reported incursions by Myanmar-backed militias that have displaced over 300 residents this month.
Assessment:
It is susceptible to further destabilization due to cross-border militant activities.
- Cybersecurity and Disinformation
3.1 Cyber Threats
- Targeted Attacks: State email systems have been targeted in phishing campaigns from servers in India and Myanmar.
- Economic Disruptions: Two garment exporters were hit by ransomware attacks this week, losing a total of $1.1 million and halting operations for 48 hours.
Assessment:
Critical infrastructure and economic sectors of Bangladesh are under growing targeted cyber threats.
3.2 Propaganda Warfare
- AL’s Digital Strategy: Bot networks on Facebook and Telegram amplify anti-government narratives. Videos falsely portraying military violence in Dhaka reached over 4 million shares within 24 hours.
Assessment:
All the while, digital disinformation campaigns are eroding public confidence in the interim government; thus, countermeasures are orderable.
- Recommendations
Neutralizing AL Networks:
- Dedicate counter-intelligence units to penetrate and dismantle AL sleeper cells.
- Freeze funding channels through cooperation with international financial supervisory authorities.
Border Security
- Improve surveillance through drones and advanced geospatial intelligence systems.
- Intensify diplomatic engagement with India to curb safe havens for exiled AL leaders.
Fortifying Cybersecurity:
- Cyber Emergency Response Taskforce: A national taskforce would monitor and combat cyber threats.
- Conduct penetration tests on critical infrastructure in order to identify vulnerabilities.
Countering Propaganda:
- Launch a government-coordinated but independent fact-checking portal to debunk viral misinformation.
- Work with social media companies to take down dangerous content quickly.
Preventing Communal Violence:
- Deploy rapid-response forces in Sylhet and Chittagong to preempt unrest.
- Organize interfaith dialogues, and unity campaigns.
FORECAST (December 1 – December 7, 2024)
- High-Risk Areas: Dhaka (AL-organised strikes, agitations), Sylhet (sectarian attacks), Bandarban (militant attacks).
- Potential Threats:
- Cyber-attacks on government agencies and garment industries.
- More border infiltration in Rajshahi, Comilla and Teknaf
- Communal violence has potential to rise.
DISCLAIMER:
Bangladesh Defense Journal OSINT reports are based on in-depth analysis of open sources, including social media platforms, public databases, news outlets, and geospatial tools. Prepared with unparalleled expertise and precision, the following reports are meant to provide actionable intelligence to enhance national security and stability. Although based on verified data, findings may change as more information becomes available. Bangladesh Defence Journal is independent and maintains the standards of ethics and legality.
